Athena/Early NYC Mayoral - Toplines

24 Oct, 2025

From October 6 to 13, 2025, we, in partnership with Early Studies, surveyed 1,099 adults registered to vote in the upcoming New York City mayoral election. Survey participants were recruited from a mix of commercial panels and other sources. All surveys were conducted online.

For our team, the purpose of this study was to test and evaluate non-standard poll questions and reporting formats to generate insights into issue priorities and policy support ahead of a dynamic, contested election.

Among other items, we asked survey participants about the importance of issues in their communities and their perception of community support for policies proposed by the two leading candidates: New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani (12 policies) and former New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo (10 policies). More ↓.

We are also releasing, with Early Studies:

• A full report of the data, including documentation, cross-tabs, and raw data for independent analysis, prepared by Early Studies.
• Our highlights from the study, aimed at users of public opinion research.

Please note:

• For some items, we only asked participants about the views of their social-circles. These views are related to, but distinct from, participants' own views. More ↓.
• For some items, in addition to reporting a single number (such as the average) for participants' answers, we are reporting information about the distribution of answers. More ↓.
• Due to the combination of (1) differences between respondents and their social-circles, and (2) the novelty of distribution reporting, we have not weighted these topline results.

When citing this data, use either:

“Athena/Early MYC Mayoral - Toplines.” Blog @ Athena Insights, 24 Oct 2025, https://blog.athenainsights.org/nyc-mayoral-toplines-2025

Early Studies, "Athena—Resonance Polling: NYC Mayor", Data Drop 003 (October 2025), Sample of 1099 New York City residents who are registered to vote in the upcoming mayoral election.

Topline results

Issue priorties

Q1

On a scale of 0-100, how important does your community think the following issue areas are in NYC?

Policy support

On a scale of 0-100, what proportion of your community would support...

Q2

Rent Freeze - Freezing rent increases on all rent-stabilized apartments for the entire mayoral term

Social Housing - Building 200,000 new affordable housing units through $100 billion in public investment

Public-Private Housing - Build or preserve 500,000 housing units through partnerships between government and developers

Means-Testing Rent Stabilization - Requiring income limits to qualify for rent-stabilized apartments

Q3

Free Buses - Making all NYC bus rides completely free by eliminating fares citywide

Green Schools - Investing $3.27 billion over 10 years to retrofit schools with renewable energy

NYC Subway Control - Having New York City take full control of the MTA from New York State

Limited Bus Subsidies - Expanding reduced-fare programs

Q4

$30 Minimum Wage - Raising NYC's minimum wage to $30 per hour by 2030

City Grocery Stores - Opening government-owned grocery stores in underserved neighborhoods

Business Tax Cuts - Reducing taxes and regulations to attract businesses and prevent companies from leaving NYC

Moderate Minimum Wage - Raising the minimum wage to $20 by 2027 per hour with business-friendly implementation

Q5

Mental Health First Responders - Deploying mental health specialists to 100 subway stations

Universal Childcare - Providing free childcare for all children ages 6 weeks to 5 years

5,000 More Police - Hiring 5,000 additional NYPD officers with bonuses and incentives

Subway Safety Expansion - Increasing Transit Police by 50% and upgrading turnstiles to prevent fare evasion

Q6

Millionaire Tax - Implementing a 2% tax on all income over $1 million annually

Corporate Tax Increase - Raising the corporate tax rate from 7.25% to 11.5%

Targeted Childcare - Guarantee a suitable 3-K slot to all families and expand after school programs

Mental Health Investment - Increasing funding for mental health services at the same time expanding current police staffing levels

Gender Affirming Care - Invest $65 million in public health care providers to provide gender-affirming care to New Yorkers who seek it.

Immigration Protections - Invest $165M in funding for immigration legal defense services, including for people and communities targeted for mass deportation.

Candidate qualities

Q7 - Mamdani qualities

On a scale of 0-100, what percentage of people in your community would agree that Zohran Mamdani is...

Electable - capable of winning the general election in November

Trustworthy - someone who keeps promises and acts with integrity

Competent - has the skills and experience to manage NYC effectively

Relatable - understands the concerns of ordinary New Yorkers

Inspiring - motivates people to believe in positive change

Q8 - Cuomo qualities

On a scale of 0-100, what percentage of people in your community would agree that Andrew Cuomo is...

Electable - capable of winning the general election in November

Trustworthy - someone who keeps promises and acts with integrity

Competent - has the skills and experience to manage NYC effectively

Relatable - understands the concerns of ordinary New Yorkers

Inspiring - motivates people to believe in positive change

Israel and Palestine

Q9

On a scale of 0-100, what percentage of people in your close community agree with…

Zohran Mamdani’s views on the Israel and Palestine conflict?

Andrew Cuomo’s views on the Israel and Palestine conflict?

Candidate priorities

Q10 - Mamdani priorities

What would your friends say Mamdani talks about the most in his mayoral campaign?

Q11 - Cuomo priorities

What would your friends say Cuomo talks about the most in his mayoral campaign?

Survey design

The purpose of this study was to test and evaluate non-standard poll questions and reporting formats to generate insights into issue priorities and policy support. We wanted to use issues and policies from a real, contested election and chose the upcoming New York City (NYC) mayoral election.

Consistent with this, we included in the survey issue priorities that have been previously polled as relevant to NYC voters and a variety of policy proposals from the two leading candidates: New York State Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani and former New York State Governor Andrew Cuomo. We also included items on candidate qualities and campaign priorities.

Social-circle surveying

One goal for this study was to better understand how social-circle surveying can be applied to questions about issue priorities and policy support. We have previously written about the success of social-circle surveying on other public opinion questions and our motivation for extending it to issue and policy polling.

For our social-circle questions, we gave the following prompt to participants:

Rather than asking for your personal opinions, we'd like you to think about your closest community—your friends, family, neighbors, and colleagues—and estimate how much they would agree with each statement.

For each statement below, predict what percentage of people in your close community (friends, family, colleagues, neighbors) would agree with the statement.

Use a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 means no one in your community would agree, and 100 means everyone would agree.

This was informed by the literature on social-circle surveying, conversations with academics, and Early Study's experience with the methodology.

Distribution reporting

In addition to reporting a single number (the average) for items asking for a 0-100 response, we are also reporting the distribution of participant responses based on the eleven-point slider (0, 10, ..., 90, 100) we used.

As an example, using responses to Q4 for $30 minimum wage:

On a scale of 0-100, what proportion of your community would support...

$30 Minimum Wage - Raising NYC's minimum wage to $30 per hour by 2030

Percentage of total participants for each option:

Which yields the following chart:

This chart shows us that responses are heavily clustered around 100, meaning that a large share of participants (25%) perceive universal consensus in their social circles on this policy.

We can compare this to the other minimum wage policy in the same question:

Moderate Minimum Wage - Raising the minimum wage to $20 by 2027 per hour with business-friendly implementation

We can see that a smaller share of participants (20%) perceive universal consensus in their social circle. Instead, a greater share of participants perceive majority but not universal support.

This difference in distributions is hidden when considering only the averages, but the distributions may be significant for understanding public support, especially as there is evidence for a dynamic relationship between a person's own views and their perceptions of the views of their social-circle, which we have previously written about.

About

Athena Insights is a nonprofit that uses the best market research tools to uncover the most persuasive narrative strategies, and gives them away for free. We believe that progress on the world’s most urgent challenges is stalling not because solutions don’t exist—but because the narratives around them fail to inspire and unite. Our mission is to democratize access to world-class narrative research. We deploy the same sophisticated market research methods that built global brands—and make the insights available for free to organizations working for a better future. By revealing what truly resonates across diverse audiences, we help nonprofits, academics and campaigners craft messages that build broad coalitions instead of deepening divides. More →.

Early Studies is a creative research studio applying techniques from political science, psychology and science fiction to create new methodologies in consumer research.

Our methods are designed to discover the underlying drivers and motivators that drive consumer behaviour. The why that determines what. The reasons, not the reasoning. These hidden truths are the foundation for deeper insights that form the basis of business, technology and policy decisions — and ultimately a fuller and deeper understanding of cultural and societal attitudes around the themes and questions that matter.

All of our work is founded upon new ways of creating primary data, through a more innovative approach to questioning. More →.